Addition by Subtraction. I know, it sounds like fuzzy math, but at the
end of an off season that saw the Phillies quickly address their most glaring
deficiencies, it seems likely that the departure of key players from certain NL
East rivals could have an equal or greater impact on the 2004 standings. It does
sound fuzzy, I know, but it is what it is: Addition by Subtraction.
To better understand this, let’s take a close look at a short list of
notorious Phillie killers who have packed their bags for more lucrative
pastures. Players like Javier Vasquez, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Vladimir Guerrero have not only left the East, they’ve left the National League. Why is this important? Well, with the
way the Phils collapsed in September, it’s easy to forget they finished only
five games back of a team they played six times that month. That’s right, the
wild card winning Marlins won it with a lead so small that a win here and a win
there could have made all the difference.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad the Phils didn’t make it to the post season
in 2003. I said in early August that the club didn’t have the horses to get past
the first round, and saw no reason for a young club to get beat up outside the
gym on their first trip to the dance. Of course, I also felt they should make
major changes - go hard after Miguel Tejada, trade Rollins and Abreu - they
didn’t and I’m glad. The changes they did make should be plenty. They’ve heavily
upgraded the pitching and bench. That together with what appears to be a vastly
more mature Jimmy Rollins (did he learn something about small ball from Juan
Pierre in October?) and a trimmed down Bobby Abreu (maybe he’ll worry more about
the good of the club than his personal comfort level this year) can account for
those five games they finished behind the Marlins. It could even make up for the
fifteen games they acquiesced to the Braves.
To see the real changes in the division, let’s get back to talking about
addition by subtraction. Roll up your sleeves, sharpen your pencils and grab a
calculator. Let’s dig into the dirt around home plate to see what we can unearth
about the division we live in.
Two pitchers almost single-handedly kept the Phils out of the playoffs in
2003. Two pitchers the Phils will not face this year, Javier Vazquez and Mark
Redman. Vazquez is now a New York Yankee, but in his five starts against the
Phils in 2003, he went 3-2 with 2 complete games, an ERA of only 3.11, and 33
SO’s in 37.2 Innings. Plus, over the last three seasons, Vazquez went 8-3 with a
3.50 ERA against the Phillies.
Mark Redman is now a member of the Oakland A’s, but in 2003 he was a
Florida Marlin. In three starts against the Phils he went 3-0 including the
Marlins only win in that critical first three-game September series between the
two teams.
As I said before, the Phils finished only five games behind the Marlins
in 2003. Take away Redman’s three wins, and it’s a two game difference. Since
the Marlin’s won their three games the days Vazquez and the Expos beat the
Phils, his absence from history would not have made any difference, except that
Redman pitched one of those days, so give the Phils another game in the win
column and we’re down to one game. I think you see where this is going and yes,
it sounds a lot like the plot from “It’s A Wonderful Life”. Not counting his
three wins against the Phils (we already subtracted them), the Marlins won 13 of
Redman’s other starts. Now, I know there’s no way of proving that the Marlins
would have lost all of those games without him, so we’ll play it safe and say
they went .500. Give the Phils a half game for each win combined with a Marlin
loss, they pick up another 2 ½ games and win the wild card by a game and a
half.
I know, it’s a whole lot of fantasy and ‘what if’, but the reality is
those two pitchers won’t be in the NL East this year. Neither will Atlanta
middle reliever Ray King. He’s gone to the NL Central St. Louis Cardinals, so
the Phils will still face him, but not as much as the 19 times they could if he
were still with Atlanta. In 10 appearances last year he held the Phils to only
three hits and one run while striking out six. As you can see, he’s virtually
handcuffed the Phils:
|
Ray
King |
ERA |
W |
L |
G |
CG |
IP |
BB |
SO |
AVG |
|
2003 |
1.29 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
0 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
.130 |
|
3
Year |
2.77 |
0 |
1 |
17 |
0 |
13 |
3 |
13 |
.180 |
In
part two of our look at the Phillies Addition by Subtraction, we’ll take a look at some of the hitters who have made their exit from the
National League East and what it may mean for the Phillies.