Since the magical year of 1993, only Curt Schilling enjoyed even a
modicum of success for the Phils (remember Russ Springer? Ryan Nye? Calvin Maduro?), and even he was often
hurt. Oh, occasionally you would
get a decent season from a Robert Person here or a Paul Byrd there, but most of
the time the Phils were counting on has-beens (Mark Portugal, Chad Ogea),
never-weres (Mark Leiter, Sid Fernandez, Jim Deshaies), or highly-touted but
injury-prone rookies (Mike Grace, Tyler Green, Michael Mimbs, Matt Beech,
Carlton Loewer). The team would go
into spring training with only one or two starting slots filled.
But this year, hopes are high.
All five starters have shown they can be successful at this level. Their average age is 26. Kevin Millwood, 29, is the greybeard of
the bunch. Only Eric Milton is
coming off an major injury, and even he pitched well since returning. Any one of them can emerge as an
ace. What is perennially a major
weakness is now a team strength.
All manager Larry Bowa has to decide this spring is in what order to set
the rotation. Must be nice to not
have to pin your hopes on the Scott Ruffcorns and Joe Grahes of the
world.
Today we take a look at what is arguably one of the top five rotations in
baseball:
Kevin Millwood –
RHP
Last
year: 2003
was Millwood’s first season as a staff ace. Although he relished the role coming
into the season and started 7-1, he struggled in that capacity and was 7-11
after May. Whether he buckled under
the weight of being the team’s #1 or, as he has suggested, tired down the
stretch due to his off-season conditioning, is open to
speculation.
What
could go right: Millwood
finally blossoms into the ace everybody hopes he will be, fulfilling the 20-win
potential he showed in Atlanta. He
becomes the stopper of the staff, halting losing streaks and giving an
overworked bullpen a rest. Or
another pitcher emerges as the ace, taking the pressure off Millwood and
allowing him to pitch in a similar capacity as he did with the Braves, where he
was a relatively anonymous innings-eater behind Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine and
twice won 18 games.
What
could go wrong: The pressure of being the ace (or, if
nobody’s saying that, the oldest and most successful starter on a team expected
to win) gets to Millwood and he puts up mediocre numbers again.
Outlook: A
15- to 18-win season and 200+ innings are reasonable expectations for
Millwood. Although he is out of the
comfort zone of pitching behind Maddux and Glavine, a year of experience as a #1
should benefit him. If his new
approach to winter workouts helps him the way it did Curt Schilling and with an
improved bullpen to lighten the load, Millwood could be looking at his first
20-win season.
Randy Wolf –
LHP
Last
year: Wolf led the team in wins with 16 and in
strikeouts with 177. Although he
went through some rough patches where hitters seemed to figure him out and he
got shellacked (leading to his relatively high 4.23 ERA), Wolf showed an uncanny
knack for adjustment and often came back from a beating with a very strong
game. At 27, he is at the age where
great left-handed starters begin to dominate. However, 2003 saw his ERA jump over a
run from 2002 and his giving up a career-high 27 home
runs.
What
could go right: Wolf takes over as the ace of the
staff, becoming the top southpaw in the NL. He breaks the 20-win barrier for the
first time, racks up 200 strikeouts and sports an ERA under 3.
What
could go wrong: Hitters
do figure out Wolf, and he struggles his way to a 9-14, 4.50 season.
Outlook: A
finesse pitcher who, when he’s on, changes speeds and location brilliantly, Wolf
should continue to get better. He
is a fiery competitor but is open to coaching, and uses his head as well as his
arm. His primary flaw is lack of
consistency. However, that usually
comes with experience, and Wolf was steadier last year than in his previous
four. Look for him to improve
again, and win 17 to 20 games.
Vicente Padilla –
RHP
Last
year: Padilla
went 14-12 in 2003, racking up over 200 innings for the second year in a row and
leading the team with a 3.62 ERA.
When he was on, he was nearly unhittable. However, there were times when his
stubbornness and his refusal to throw off-speed pitches got him in trouble. He also occasionally tipped his pitches
and naturally got lit up. Although
his numbers were good, it felt as though he should be
great.
What
could go right: Padilla finally puts it all together and
becomes the dominant, top-of-the-rotation starter he could be.
What
could go wrong: He
doesn’t. His ability makes it
difficult to pull him from the rotation, but his head forces Larry Bowa to have
a quick hook when Padilla starts.
Outlook: Padilla has the filthiest stuff on the
team, often invoking comparisons to Pedro Martinez, but has always been his own
worst enemy. If he takes coaching
to heart and mixes up his pitches (and stays away from that high-school sidearm
junk), he could be the best pitcher on the staff, possibly the league. But if he continues to butt heads with
Bowa and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, he could quickly find himself in the
doghouse. Expect Padilla to put up
numbers similar to those he posted in 2002 and
2003.
Brett Myers –
RHP
Last
year: In Myers’ first full year in the Show,
he was everything the Phillies could have hoped for. 14 wins for a 23-year-old is terrific,
and although Phillies fans were hoping for their own Mark Prior, Myers did just
about everything he was asked.
However, he tired during the year and posted a 5.72 ERA after the
All-Star break. He had a tendency
to overthrow in pressure situations and could let emotions get the better of
him.
What
could go right: Myers
builds on his solid rookie season and becomes an All-Star caliber pitcher. A year of experience allows him to pitch
deeper into games as well as the season.
What
could go wrong: Myers suffers the sophomore jinx and
regresses to the point where he is demoted to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and replaced
by a Ryan Madson of an Eric Junge.
Outlook: Myers should continue to get better with
experience. All he needs to do is
concentrate on his mechanics and keep his emotions in check to be a dominant
starter. Figure on Myers posting
similar numbers to last year, with more innings and a lower
ERA.
Eric Milton –
LHP
Last
year: Milton
spent most of the season recovering from career-threatening knee surgery, but
returned to the Twins’ staff in September and pitched well enough to be added to
the postseason roster, allowing less than one baserunner by hit or walk per
inning. His mid-90’s fastball lost
a little velocity, however, either due to the inactivity or from losing 20
pounds off his 2002 weight.
What
could go right: Milton comes back fully recovered from
surgery and regains the form that won him 41 games from 2000-2002. He wins 15 games and earns a multi-year,
$10 million plus per year contract.
What
could go wrong: The knee keeps Milton from returning to
form, and he spends much of the year either on the disabled list or giving up
dingers, a problem to which he is prone.
Outlook: Expecting
Milton to return to his 2002 form and improve on his previous success is
unrealistic. At $9 million, Milton
is easily the highest-paid fifth starter in the game, and, in a free-agent year,
will need to show that he is at least fully recovered in order to command that
kind of salary again. Many are
concerned with his 4.76 career ERA, but the Metrodome bandbox he pitched in is
the American League version of Coors Field. If he wins 10-12 games with an ERA
around 4, the Phillies would be very happy.
The Rest
The starting rotation is set, but injuries are a part of the game. Depth is essential to success, and the
Phils are in good shape. Ryan
Madson is likely the first phone call, and has shown enough in the minors that
he would already be a part of most teams’ plans. Amaury Telemaco has major-league
experience and put forth a yeoman-like effort when added to the rotation last
August, posting a deceptive 1-4 record and a 3.97 ERA. Josh Hancock, acquired from Boston last
winter for Jeremy Giambi, has the potential to be a solid,
middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Eric Junge has shown he can pitch at this level, and if Bud Smith, who
has a big-league no-hitter to his credit, fully recovers from arm problems, may
pitch too well in either the bullpen or SWB to keep out of the rotation. It is an embarrassment of riches for the
team that a few years ago had Chad Ogea as its #2
starter.
NEXT: RELIEF
PITCHERS