Yes, in the frenzy that often is the mid-summer pennant push, teams
can often forget the long term goals for the short term pleasures.
And, indeed, there is some semblance of truth to James Baldwin's
contention that "the future is like heaven; everyone exalts it but no
one wants to go there now." The truth is that since the advent of
free agency, teams and their fans have taken a more present oriented
philosophy, often with disastrous results.
With this in mind, perhaps it might be better for Phillie GM Pat Gillick to pay small attention to the words of Baldwin and instead
focus on the thoughts of a certain Ted Levitt. To Levitt, "the future
belongs to people who see possibilities before they become obvious."
What is obvious to almost any Phillie phan is that as currently
constructed, their favorite baseball nine is in dire need of pitching,
pitching...and more pitching. During the spring and early into the
2007 campaign, it was thought that the bullpen was short a few arms
and that Gillick should put his focus in that area.
Then spring turned to summer, and with the changing season came the
arm injuries to starting pitchers Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers and Jon Lieber. Oh, technically Myers was injured while pitching in relief,
but had the bullpen not been such a source of utter consternation
early on there would never have been any thought given to moving him
there.
In fact, Myers was a starting pitcher masquerading in the bullpen and
when he went down along with Garcia and Lieber, the Phillie starting
staff of six was reduced in half, lefties Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer
as well as righty Adam Eaton. Since then rookies Kyle Kendrick and J.D. Durbin have attempted to place their fingers in the widening dike with somewhat positive results.
Still, the cries come from as far away as places like Allentown,
Scranton and Harrisburg of the need for the Phils to address their
pitching woes before the July 31 deadline runs its course. These
voices speak of the need to bring in at best a Carlos Zambrano and at
worst a Kyle Lohse. They demand that Gillick throw away his often
used "Stand Pat" nickname and magically reconstruct a staff that has
destructed in ways that no one could have foreseen six months ago.
Yet, before the cries become too loud, before the knee jerk reaction
to "do something, do anything!" mantra takes hold it might just be
time to step back for a moment and take a long term global view of
just where the Philadelphia Phillies are today and just how far they
have come in merely one year.
The timing couldn't be more simple for merely a year ago the team
looked old, worn and ready to dismantle. Names like David Bell, Rheal Cormier, Sal Fasano, Arthur Rhodes, Cory Lidle, Ryan Franklin and yes,
Bobby Abreu were all prominent names on the big league roster. The
team was wallowing well below .500 with not even the scent of a
playoff push in the foreseeable future.
In merely a bit less than one year all but Rhodes were moved at the
trading deadline and not only did the "new look" Philadelphia
Phillies, now lead by youngsters Chase Utley and Ryan Howard nearly
steal a National League wild card berth but have tossed away the term
"also rans" completely.
Admittedly, no one can be pleased with this season's .500 record but
again, it is important to see beyond the forest and into the trees.
This team, as presently constructed has an offense as powerful as any
in baseball, a club with youth and versatility on their side, and for
the first time in eons, some future help in the minor leagues at
precisely the places where the parent club needs future help the most.
With this as a caveat, let’s take a look at how this team might well
look in the not too distant future should Gillick and Company refrain from the noises of the gathering masses and instead stand steadfast and
stern towards the continuing master plan.
The current club is now brimming with the pieces to assemble an
offensive juggernaut for years to come. Players like Utley, Howard,
Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are only now entering their baseball
prime and should continue to star in PhillieLand for years to come.
Behind the plate, what once was a black hole of mammoth proportions is
now probably protected for much of the next decade. Not only has
rookie Carlos Ruiz taken hold of the starting catching spot but he
will soon be joined by young Jason Jaramillo, a switch-hitting
defensive master with a higher upside than even Ruiz.
These two should man the catching spots for the Phils next year and
will eventually be challenged by potentially the two best catchers in
the Phillie system, Lou Marson and Travis d'Arnaud. Marson is
currently playing well at Single-A Clearwater while d'Arnaud is
performing extremely well as a recently signed first round draft pick
in the Gulf Coast League.
Perhaps the only disappointment to this point in the catching ranks
would be young Jesus Sanchez, the 19 year old Venezuelan who was
acquired along with three other players in the July 30 deal last
summer for Abreu and Lidle. Currently, Sanchez is toiling in the GCL
and has yet to show the offensive skills that excited the Phillies
when they brought him over from the Yankees in the deal.
In Howard, Utley and Rollins, the Phils have three quarters of what
might soon constitute the best infield in baseball while Victorino,
and fellow outfielders Aaron Rowan and Michael Bourn have performed
well both offensively and defensively this season. Of course, the
jury remains out of slugger Pat Burrell in left field but he has
recently begun to hit like most think he can and should he continue to
do so, the Phils will have solved a bit of their dilemma over finding a
right-handed hitting power bat.
Of course, even the most ardent Phillie phan, the one who constantly
places his rose colored glasses squarely on his nose, would
acknowledge a need for a third baseman and even here the Phils might
have their answer from within the organization.
Mike Costanzo is currently vying for the home run lead in Double-A
Reading as the teams third baseman and is still on track for arrival
at Citizens Bank Park sometime in late 2008. Truth be told, Costanzo
still has his critics, the ones who point to his high strikeout totals
and low batting average against left-handed pitching.
Still, there is much to like about Costanzo, from the way he generates
electric power from the left side of the plate to his strong and
usually accurate arm at third base. Even more impressive is the way
he seems to improve at every level of competition once he takes root
and becomes comfortable.
While his batting average remains problematic in the mid .240 range,
Costanzo has shown a willingness to take a walk recently without any
noticeable loss of power from his bat. If his numbers continue at
their present rate, he will have hit about 25 home runs and knocked in
about 80-85 runs by seasons end and will have earned a promotion to the Phillies new Triple-A franchise in Allentown next year.
From there, the next step is entirely up to him. If he shows he can
hit Triple-A pitching, if even mostly against right-handers, then he
will soon join the present group of Howard, Utley and Rollins as an
entire infield of home grown products. Of this are master plans
implemented and perfected.
Further down the road, but not too be far as to be indistinguishable
from the shadows are such outstanding infield prospects as shortstop
Jason Donald and second baseman Adrian Cardenas. Both were selected
as high round draft picks in the June 2006 amateur draft and neither
has done anything to show that they weren't both well worth the high
rankings.
Jason Donald, a former All-American collegian at Arizona is currently
performing at Clearwater, after a distinguished early season in
Lakewood. He has displayed a strong .300 bat and outstanding glove in
both places and could come quickly should he remain consistent.
The Phils see Donald as a shortstop but might think about moving him
to third base if he begins to display a bit more power. Of course,
should Costanzo eventually prove worthy of the starting spot in
PhillieLand, the Phils might well have the most delicious of dilemmas
on their hands...too many infielders for not enough spots.
As well as Donald has played, and currently he is wielding one of the
hottest bats in the minor leagues, most baseball scouts readily
acknowledge that that cream of the crop in the Phillie system
continues to be 19 year old Adrian Cardenas, a player who does nothing
but remind nearly every Phillie coach and scout of a "young Chase
Utley."
Perhaps no later than next season, Cardenas will be ranked as one of
the Top 10 Prospects in baseball. Yes, he is that good. While still
a teenager, Cardenas is hitting over .300 at full-season Lakewood and
displaying the confidence and demeanor of a player several years his
elder.
Soon enough the Phils will really have a situation on their hands, as
young Cardenas meets Chase Utley in Philadelphia. Make no mistake,
the day is coming and it might be here sometime in 2010. The Phils
will happily let things take their course but it would surprise no one
if Adrian Cardenas were eventually be moved to left field, a place where the organization could well use another power bat eventually.
Speaking of the outfield, the system seems to now have a veritable
plethora of young, speedy and skilled outfielders. Greg Golson,
D'Arby Myers and Quentin Berry are three that quickly come to mind and
all are having success in the minor leagues, albeit admittedly still
in the lower levels.
Add to this list the names Tyler Mach, Mathew Spencer, Michael Taylor
and Mathew Rizzoti, four collegiate players who recently signed from
the Draft Class of 2007 and the Phillies appear serious about
addressing their needs for more power bats at the minor league level
this year.
In particular, Mach has opened many eyes with an early season
offensive production at Williamsport that includes an average of over
.380 and the power numbers to match. His is a name to remember after
a very successful collegiate career in Oklahoma.
Still, the masses cry out for pitching help and point to the fact that
the team cannot compete for a 2007 National League playoff berth
without reinforcements. Perhaps the masses are correct, but the
question of the future remains the same. Should tomorrow be sacrificed
for the potential gains of today. It is a troubling and perplexing
question for Gillick, and one that will be answered soon.
That said, it should be noted that the strength of the entire system
has always been young pitching prospects and that has not changed
despite the ill-advised deal that sent Gavin Floyd and Giovanni
Gonzalez to the Chicago White Sox for Garcia during the off-season.
Add to that the loss of Justin Germano to the San Diego Padres in the
spring and Gillick has not had the best of off-seasons when it comes
to retaining young pitchers.
Still, the stable is hardly empty and the recent success of Kendrick
and Durbin should only reinforce this belief. In fact, Kendrick was
no more than the ninth best pitching prospect in the system this
spring and Durbin was not even with the club. Names like Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Drabek, Edgar Garcia, Scott Mathieson, Josh Outman, J.A. Happ, Matt Maloney and Zack Segovia were all rated higher than Kendrick and, indeed, most still are.
It would do well for the Phillies to just attempt to weather the Storm
of '07 with hurricane force gales that caught the likes of Garcia,
Lieber, Myers, Mathieson and Tom Gordon in its aftermath. Although
the storm probably cost the team a chance at the NL playoffs this
fall, it might well have speeded the development of youngsters like
Kendrick and Durbin as well as fortified the confidence level of many
of the aforementioned hurlers.
In fact, recently signed number one draft pick, Joe Savery, noted the
promotions of Kendrick and Durbin as proof positive that the Phillie
system seems resolved to reward young hurlers with quick promotions
should they warrant it. It would not be hard to imagine a rotation led
by Hamels and Myers and consisting of such standout youngsters as
Kendrick, Carrasco, Savery, Happ, Maloney or Outman.
All of these pitchers seem destined to perform at the big league level
soon and the Phils will probably move Mathieson and Segovia to the
bullpen to prepare them as closers. The second tier of young
pitching prospects include Garcia, Drabek and Drew Carpenter.
Speaking of draft picks, the Phils might well reveal much about their
Master plan philosophy soon with the ongoing negotiations of high
school hotshots, Brandon Workman and Julian Sampson. The Phils have
signed 17 of their top 19 draft picks and only Workman and Sampson
remain. Yet, what they choose to do may well speak volumes about the
Phils commitment to building from within, and the master plan.
Both Workman, a third round draft pick, and Sampson, selected in the
twelfth round due to signability issues, have collegiate options
should they choose and in fact, both seem to be leaning in that
direction right now. Yet, the Phils can sign one or both of them
should they choose to sweeten the pot on the signing bonuses, and it
is hoped that this is what they do.
Workman and Sampson are both projectable high school right-handers,
the kind that baseball scouts love to watch pitch. Both come with
huge upsides, and would immediately elevate the Phillie draft from a
solid one to an outstanding one. Combined with the signing of Savery,
d'Arnaud, third baseman Travis Mattair and power bats like Mach,
Spencer, Taylor and Rizzoti, the Phils will have shored up an entire
system in two short drafts.
The deadline to sign the high school hurlers in August 15 and if the
past is any indication, the Phils will have a hard time singing either
one. As mentioned, it will take a huge signing bonus, one that is
probably well deserved but one that the organization has in the past
been loathe to offer.
Indeed, old habits die hard and equally as the predictable stalled
negotiations with Workman and Sampson, so too is the inclination
within the Phillie system to "go for broke" and mortgage the future
for today’s potential wealth. Names such as Bourn, Happ, Carrasco and
Cardenas will undoubtedly be bantered about whenever a potential
trading partner comes Gillick's way.
Given the fact that the team is on course to easily draw over three
million phans it will be oh so tempting to move a Bourn or Happ should
someone like Bronson Arroyo or Matt Morris become available. It can
only be hoped that Gillick refuses to budge on these temptations and
instead remains steadfast with due course full speed ahead.
For far too many summers, the Phillies would tease their phandom with
a tempting morsel in the name of Turk Wendell, Dennis Cook, Mike Williams, Todd Jones or Felix Rodriguez. A quick glance at the
current roster reveals none of these names and only Jones is still
active and effective.
Instead, it might behoove the Phils to take a glance backward and see
just how far they have come in the past year. Far removed from the
old and poorly constructed group that constituted the roster last
year, this team now seems built to withstand the test of time if only
due diligence is served.
As much as the organization has been criticized for its seeming
inability to build from within, the current roster would seem to
scream otherwise. Players like Utley, Howard, Hamels, Victorino,
Ruiz, Rollins, Myers, Madson and Bourn are direct products from their
pharm system, and as previously noted, the stampede is nearly on the
way.
Not that long ago, it was suggested in this column that the best way
to capture and win the hearts and minds of a rabid Philadelphia
phanbase would be to "paint a picture" and then sell it to the Philly
critics. Incredibly, merely a year removed from that last week in
July when an entire organization seemed to dismantle before our very
eyes, the team appears ready to present that picture to the public.
The picture promises to be a bright and colorful one, filled with
images of Howard home runs and Utley theatrics, of Victorino verve and
Rollins rhapsody. It promises images of Hamels heroics and Myers
mastery and it soon may promises images of Carrasco, Cardenas and
perhaps prophetically, pitcher Josh Outman.
Yes, this is the picture the team should continue to paint and not
choose to begin again with yet another portrait of faded colors and
dreary scenery. After far too many seasons in the wilderness, the
team and organization seem to have finally discovered daylight, not
yet bright and shining but certainly with the promise of daybreak
instead of nightfall.
It is this mindset that must dominate all discussions and trade talk
over the next few weeks, '07 playoffs notwithstanding. it would best
be served to remember the painting, remember the images, and most of
all, remember...the master plan.
Columnist's Note: Please email all questions and comments to allenariza@earthlink.net and I will respond. Thank you! CD from the Left Coast