Baseball: Then and Now

News Item: April 2, 2000 – The Braves’ John Smoltz goes on the Disabled List… for the entire 2000 season.

Mike Hampton’s and Pedro Martinez’ annual trips to the Disabled List last week have a deeper meaning than the conclusion that these two China Dolls shouldn’t be counted on to pitch large numbers of meaningful innings. Although it is interesting to note that Hampton has never had chest problems before (the oblique is probably the only part of his anatomy he hasn’t injured previously) and Martinez’ troubles have typically been with his arm and not his legs, there’s a bigger issue here than the unrealistic expectations of their respective employers. Mainly that contending teams would be better off not to rely too heavily on old and/or fragile pitchers.

Despite what would seem to be an obvious caution, all three of the contenders in the National League East opened the 2008 season by relying on at least two starters who are either old or fragile. Maybe this is a statement as to the scarcity of starting pitching, but then how do we explain Kyle Lohse, who is neither especially old nor especially fragile, going so very deep into Spring Training without a job, before being picked up by the non-contending Cardinals, seemingly out of desperation. Meanwhile, the NL East favorites, the Mets, started off counting on the aforementioned Pedro and Orlando Hernandez, who is officially 42 years old, or three years older than Jack Benny was for a half a century. Number Two in the East, the Phillies, have the oldest player in baseball, 45 year-old starter Jamie Moyer, while their immensely-talented (think, Cy Young potential) 24 year-old ace, Cole Hamels, has never pitched a full professional season. Then there’s Number Three in the East, the Braves. In addition to, for some reason, thinking Hampton could provide any high-quality major league innings at the age of 35 after two entire years on the DL, the Braves have also outfitted their rotation with not one, but two, forty-somethings, a flight of fantasy that has largely gone uncommented upon. Maybe that’s because they are a sure-thing future Hall of Famer (Tom Glavine) and a strong Hall of Fame candidate (John Smoltz), but that doesn’t change the fact that Glavine is 42 and Smoltz will be 41 in mid-May. Or that Smoltz has had four arm surgeries and has already made one 2008 trip to the Disabled List prior to the start of the current season.

(In fairness to the NL East, it should be noted that the two best teams in the NL West, the Padres and the Diamondbacks, are counting on soon-to-be 42 year-old Greg Maddux and currently disabled 44 year-old Randy Johnson.)

While it is true that the Braves’ less-than-questioning media have been drooling over Glavine and Smoltz having given up just one earned run to date in 16 innings, it is also true that he who ignores history is doomed to repeat it. While the Mets and the Braves chose to ignore Martinez’ and Hampton’s injury history while building their starting rotations, the Braves are also guilty of overlooking the age factor, maybe because good pitchers are lasting into their forties far more often than in the past, or maybe due to the pitching shortage, or maybe due to an attack of nostalgia on behalf of Glavine. The Braves apparently chose to ignore the indisputable truth that, prior to the 2003 season, no team that played in the postseason had ever, repeat ever, relied on two 40+ starters as regulars in a rotation. In fact, over the course of the entire 20th Century, only 30 individuals aged 40 or over ever started a single game for a pennant winner or a wild card team. And those that did averaged just 12 starts per season per man. Want to take it a step farther? In the 100 years of 20th Century baseball, only six starting pitchers in their 40s were one of the four top starters for a post season team.

Year	Pitcher	Age	Team	Starts	Rotation Slot
1928	Grover C. Alexander	41	Cardinals	31	1
1929	John P. Quinn	45	Athletics	18	4
1982	Phil Niekro	43	Braves	35	1
1986	Don Sutton	41	Angels	34	1
1989	Rick Reuschel	40	Giants	32	1
1995	Dennis Martinez	40	Indians	28	2

Only three postseason teams from the 20th Century; the 1934 Cardinals, the 1958 Yankees, and the 1987 Twins; had two 40+ starters of any description or usage. Knuckleballer Jesse Haines (40) and Dazzy Vance (43) combined for 10 starts for the Gas House Gang. Sal Maglie (41) and Murray Dickson (41) totaled five starts for the eastern branch of the Kansas City A’s in 1958. And knuckleballer Joe Niekro (42 – he was the fifth starter) and hanging on Steve Carlton (42) made a total of 25 starts for the Cinderella Twins. Prior to 2003, you just didn’t see the best teams with a lot of old pitchers.

It is true that times have changed a little in the 21st Century. Outside of a single start by 41 year-old Mike Morgan for the 2001 Diamondbacks, the trend toward successful team using 40+ starters didn’t get rolling until 2003, when the Yankees had Roger Clemens (their number one starter) and David Wells (number four) as regulars in their rotation – the first time a first place team had ever used two quadranarians as rotation regulars. Two years later, the Yankees again had two oldtimers in the rotation… two different ones. The previously-mentioned Mr. Johnson was their 41 year-old number two starter, and the fading Kevin Brown made 13 starts as the erstwhile number five starter. The next year the Mets, with Glavine (32 starts) and Hernandez (20 starts) did it, followed by last year’s Red Sox, whose second and fourth starters were a soon-to-be-injured Curt Schilling and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.

So, yes, there have been four teams in the past five years who have made the postseason with two 40+ starters in their rotation. But there were also 103 years prior to that when zero post season teams had two regular starters over 40. Maybe the Braves know something almost everyone else doesn’t. But, in this particular measure, given the weight of history, to say nothing of the weight of statistics, it sure looks like they’re doomed to repeat third place again, even though old pitchers never seem to die anymore, they just throw fadeaways.

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