There are exactly 18 million and one good reasons why the Phillies are unlikely to try and sign Ryan Howard to a long term contract. Even though the 2008 major league leader in home runs and RBIs is not a once-in-forever talent like Babe Ruth or Wilt Chamberlain, he is a rare talent. There are, after all, few players who have averaged more than 50 home runs over the course of three consecutive seasons. Still, it seems unlikely the Phillies and Howard will be able to work something out for the long term, and, even if they did, it's probably not a good idea for the Phillies.
that when he filed for arbitration last year, ultimately winning the $10 million
lottery, it was pointed out that Ryan Howard is a case of a player who came up
to the majors relatively late in life. He was about ten weeks short of his 25th
birthday when he made his debut on September 1, 2004, and he didn't become a
regular until halfway through the 2005 season, when Jim Thome, who was blocking
Howard at first base, went out with an elbow injury. This late start led to
unrealistic expectations for his long term career. He may have been the National
League Rookie of the Year in 2005, but he was almost 26 when the award was
Howard has taken the Phillies to arbitration a second time, asking for $18
million off a year wherein he hit 48 home runs and drove in 146, while helping
lead the Phillies to the World Series title. That's asking for an 80 percent
raise, as opposed to the 40 percent raise (to $14 million) that the Phillies are
offering. Whether he gets what he's asking for or not, and given the outcome
of the 2008 Series and his 153 home runs in the past three years, he's got a
pretty good chance, that's not exactly petty cash. Even if the Phillies were
the Yankees, that's not petty cash. You see, the Phillies aren't the type of
organization with unlimited resources that they can spend like drunken sailors.
Paying Howard, say $25 million a year for five years (or whatever) would take up
way too much of their budget. And, unlike the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox,
etc., they do have a budget. It just wouldn't be fiscally responsible to tie
up that much money in one player.
is one other good reason, besides fiscal responsibility. The 18 millionth and
first reason. Howard has what Bill James has called, "old players'
skills," in that his primary worth is in his ability to hit the long ball and
draw walks… abilities that aging players tend to have, or maybe, tend to keep.
Older players will often have power and strike zone judgment but, like Howard,
they do not have good speed, they aren't good fielders, they don't hit for
average and they don't have good arms. That shouldn't come as a great shock
if you think about it – as players age their batting average declines as does
their speed (or lack thereof). As James put it in the New
Historical Baseball Abstract, in referring to Alvin Davis, a young
player with old players' skills doesn't have any unexploited athletic
that might make for an interesting philosophical discussion, but there's more
to the old players' skills formula. James also did a study, using his Win
Shares metric, that showed that players like this tend to peak earlier and fade
(or age) more quickly than players who, when they're younger; run fast, hit
for average, throw and field well. In a word (or three), players who are better
overall athletes. There are probably a variety of reasons for this, but one
would guess that it's usually because old players' skills players either get
hurt, or lose so much of their overall effectiveness at a relatively young age
that they can't keep a job.
not every big slugger (and it seems as if most old players' skills players
tend to be pretty big guys) falls into this category, and without going into
James' study in detail, it's still easy to quickly pick out 13 well-known
players who personify this type. Here's a list, showing the age(s) at which
they peaked, their age in their last season in the majors, and their career home
|Player||Peak Age||Age in final season||Career HR|
a lot of muscle. A list that includes the Capital Punisher, another guy who hit
58 home runs in a season, an MVP at the age of 23, another 50-home run man, the
former record holder for home runs in a season in the National League, the
holder of the record for home runs in a month, the Bull, and a two-time 50 home
run hitter who also led his league in dingers for seven straight years. A total
of 25 players have hit 50 or more home runs in a season. Four of them are on
this list (Greenberg, Fielder, Wilson, Kiner) and three more (son of Fielder,
David Ortiz and Howard) could well be added to the list. Also among current
players, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell fit this type. Maybe that's one reason why
the Phillies didn't seriously try to keep the 32 year old Burrell.
matter how you look at it, there's a lot of power there. And yet, suppose you
take a composite of just the listed players who have finished their careers.
He'd look like this…
have to think, given the power shown early in their major league stays, that a
career that peaked before age 28 and that was over before the age of 35, and
produced just 312 career home runs would be something of a disappointment. No
one on this list got to 400 home runs. Only Howard and Kiner even made 350. But,
Greenberg hit 58 home runs when he was 27 (just a year older than Howard was
when he did it).
Yes, there are a lot of home run hitters who are exceptions, both in longevity and production. One of them, for instance, is currently playing; the aforementioned Mr. Thome, who will start the 2009 season at the age of 38 with 541 home runs. (Although Thome has been a higher average hitter and a little better fielder, too.) But, would you want to risk nine figures on the possibility that Ryan Howard, who will start the 2009 season at the age of 29, will be one of the exceptions, no matter how many Phanatical Philadelphians pack Citizen's Park?