Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays is widely considered one of the
greatest pitchers in the major leagues today. Oh, you could make an argument on
behalf of CC Sabathia with the Yankees or Johan Santana with the Mets and
advocates of current phenom Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants will have
their say but any discussion of great major league hurlers must either begin or
end with Roy Halladay on the list. And with considerable justification.
Simply put, Roy Halladay's resume would fill a page in the Who's Who List of
baseball greats even if he retired today. To wit, a Cy Young Award winner in
2003 and twice runner up for the coveted honor. He has twice won 20 games, in
2003 and 2008, and wins with almost frightening consistency, as his lifetime
141-69 record attests. And he is a workhorse of the first order, finishing with
246 innings and 9 complete games last year. Even this, playing on a team in
Toronto that is average at best, Halladay has found time to compose a 10-3
record to this point, certainly good enough to earn his starting pitching
assignment in the recent All-Star Game.
With this in mind, it was no surprise that the buzz reached near crescendo
heights when current Toronto Blue Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi announced
a few weeks ago that he would begin taking bids on a possible trade for Halladay
before the July 31 major league trading deadline. Whether or not this was a
surprise to the Blue Jay hurler has not yet been determined, but after quietly
considering his status, Halladay indicated that he was not adverse to being
moved to a contending team with a winning spirit. He also indicated that if the
move could A] help Toronto shed some player salary [Halladay has 1.5 years left
on his current contract and is still owed over 20 million dollars] and B] give
his current team a chance to rebuild with young prospects, so much the better.
It didn't take major league baseball writers and pundits long to peruse the
major league landscape and decide that the Philadelphia Phillies and Roy
Halladay would seemingly make for a perfect baseball marriage, the team
currently looking for top of the rotation pitching help and Halladay looking for
a very good team in which to win a World Championship. Needless to say,
Philadelphia fans jumped on the Halladay bandwagon with both feet and began
painting scenarios that would work in order to accomplish this trade.
After all, a rotation led by lefty Cole Hamels and righty Roy Halladay would be
guaranteed to send shivers up every National League spine from Los Angeles to
New York. How could the Dodgers expect to defeat a team with two aces at the top
of the rotation? What would the Mets do to counteract this wondrous dynamic duo
of destiny and doom. Indeed, on paper the rotation would look impressive, led by
the H boys, Hamels and Halladay and further bolstered by the yet another member
of the burgeoning 3-H Club, J.A. Happ. Add to this the wily stances of veterans
Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton and what team wouldn't want to open a seven game
playoff series with this starting staff?
Still, life has a way of bringing truth to the forefront at the most inopportune
times and the euphoria attached to a Christmas in July Halladay was punctured by
the reality that in acquiring such a valuable right arm, the Phils might just
have to bite off a bit more than they are wanting to chew. With any higher rank
comes the corresponding greater responsibility as word began to filter out as to
the players the Phils might just have to give up in any deal for the Blue Jay
ace.
Pitching phenom Kyle Drabek's name was first to reach print, followed very soon
after by young outfield phenoms Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown as well as
catcher Lou Marson and shortstop Jason Donald. As if this wasn't enough to make
any Phillie follower blanche in agony, the reports surfaced that Toronto was
closely monitoring the progress of one J.A. Happ, he of the sterling 7-0 record
in Philadelphia this year and easily the most successful southpaw starter in a
rotation that features Mssrs. Hamels and Moyer.
Suffice it to say that opinions were certainly not uniform in either direction
as to the possible ransom demanded by Toronto for the privilege of possibly
renting Halladay for the next 1.5 years. To the many win at any cost crowd,
these names seemed a mere pittance to pay for just such an honor as watching the
talented righty dominate National League hitters for the rest of the season. To
them, this acquisition almost guaranteed a return to the Octoberfest known as
the World Series, and wouldn't the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees or Los
Angeles Angels quake in fear when the newest Quaker took the mound wearing red
Phillie pinstripes. Fair enough and certainly worthy of discussion.
After all, winning can become contagious and Phillie Fever has reached almost
withering heights by now. The team is a virtual sell out factory at Citizens
Bank Park and the acquisition of Halladay would assure that nearly any ticket
yet available for future games would be lapped up in a rapid fire pace. And a
rotation featuring Hamels, Halladay, Blanton, Moyer and the newly signed Pedro Martinez would be one worthy of note.
Yet the baseball purists, the Phillie fans who still get as much pleasure in
following a prospect through the minor leagues on their way to Philadelphia were
equally appalled at such a price to pay for someone who promised nothing more
tangible than a "greater opportunity" for future fortune and fame, but
with no guarantees on the sales slip. To these hearty souls, a price that
included Drabek, Taylor, Brown or Happ was simply too much to pay, regardless of
the skill level they would bring.
Indeed, both parties have justifiable cause for their suspicions and while
another World Series banner flying over the skies of Citizens Bank Park evokes
delirious delights of the soul, the erosion of a Phillie farm system that has
carefully and painstakingly been cultivated by the organization gives equal
pause to ponder...is the going up worth the coming down? Not since the dominant
Cincinnati Reds of 1975-76 has a National League team repeated as World Series
champions. Yes, those Reds of Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, George Foster
and Tony Perez. Another Phillie championship would surely put this group of
player in select and glorified company.
Not only that, but winning often on baseballs highest stage makes for compelling
cases when it comes to future Hall of Fame inductions and make no mistake,
players like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and possibly even Jamie Moyer are now
playing not just for the present but for immortality. Utley is already being
discussed as one of the greatest second basemen who ever played the game, and
another World Series championship could further cement the argument. Howard
recently became the faster player ever to achieve 200 hundred home runs and his
home run heroics may soon join the ranks of the Ruths, Aarons and Mantles.
As for 46 year old Jamie Moyer, he is ever so quietly rising up the ranks of
some of the more skilled long-term southpaws who ever played the game. Oh, his
inclusion into the Hall of Fame is unlikely to ever become more than mere fodder
on an internet blog, but should A] he win one more World Series and B] continue
winning between 14-16 games for the next two or three seasons, he will be
nearing the magical 300 win mark and no pitcher with that many wins has ever
been denied Hall of Fame entry. Longest of shots? Absolutely. Impossible? Ask
that question to the Florida Marlins, who recently were dominated by the slow
stuff of Jamie Moyer, as he fashioned a one-hit shutout over seven innings
against the floundering Fish.
So, there is ample reason to request a Christmas in July Halladay and it might
well be granted between now and July 31. It seems as if the Phillies, more so
than almost any team, not only has the reasons but the resources to accomplish
such a celebration. Need proof? Lets take a quick glance at other teams who
might have both the reasons and the resources to bring in Roy Halladay.
Boston or the Yankees? Both are in the same AL division as the Blue Jays and
Toronto is unlikely to want to deal their ace to teams that they will have to
face 18 times a season.
Los Angeles Angels? They could use another starting pitcher and certainly
have the financial resources to obtain such a prize but value their prospects as
gold and hoard their gems more than almost any team in baseball. The same can be
said for their neighbors, the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are not likely to pay
the price in talented young players for the luxury of the catch.
Other possibilities include the St. Louis Cardinals, but they will not move
Colby Rasmus and the rest of their system is quite pedestrian. They are out of
the Halladay Hunt. The New York Met cupboard is bare, the San Francisco Giants
won't mess with their newly discovered chemistry and the Chicago Cubs are
currently going through bankruptcy hearings and would seem ill-equipped to take
on another mega million dollar salary.
Which leaves the Philadelphia Phillies as the last team standing. And it is
likely that both Blue Jays GM Ricciardi and Phillie counterpart, GM Ruben Amaro
are aware of this and are carefully playing the waiting game to see just who
will blink first. The Jays could well decide to keep Halladay and hope to either
move him in the winter or reload for another title effort in 2010. Neither seems
like an enviable choice at the moment, though to his credit, Halladay has
insisted that he is content in Toronto and more than willing to play out his
contract north of the border.
For his part, Amaro can wisely play the waiting game and hope that the price
goes down. After all, his team has a sizable lead in the National League East
and looks very much like a team fully prepared for the rigors of October. He
also has the luxury of giving equal opportunity employment to such luminaries as
Rodrigo Lopez and future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. The Dominican dandy, who
some believe is the greatest pitcher of the generation, recently inked a
prorated contract that will allow the Phillies to slowly evaluate his skills
with a goal of August for his inception into the club's starting rotation.
They scouted him thoroughly in the Dominican Republic and reports of a fastball
that consistently touched 90-91 MPH convinced them that he still had some gas
left in the tank; at least enough to assist the team through the Dog Days of
August. Look for Martinez to get three to five starts in August and if he does
well he will remain in the rotation into September. Should he falter, or fail
completely, the team then would look to the likes of the veteran Lopez or
rookies like Kyle Drabek, Andrew Carpenter, Carlos Carrasco or the rejuvenated
Kyle Kendrick to help then navigate the treacherous division deciding waters of
September.
It is also worth discussing why the Pharm System Phanatics are in such a tizzy
about the rumored package for Halladay and just what impact said package might
have on the club's future. Any discussion of the talent in the system now begins
with 21 year old right-hander Kyle Drabek, currently at Double-A Reading. The
son of former big league pitcher Doug Drabek, the youngster has been dazzling
this year, to the tune of a 9-1 record and an overpowering performance in the
recent Future Games. Simply put, he is the best pitching prospect to come
through the organization since Cole Hamels and is expected to vie for a starting
berth in the rotation in 2010. There are even rumors that young Drabek could
well surface in Philadelphia sometime in late August in order to not only help
with the Phillie pennant push but also to be eligible for post season play this
year. Yes, he is that good.
Both Amaro and Manager Charlie Manuel have declared Drabek as untouchable so it
seems likely that any amount of persuasion on the part of Toronto will certainly
fall on the deaf ears of both Amaro and Manual during the next two weeks. That
is a very good thing, but still does not go far enough as far as many fans are
concerned. They fear that Amaro may well fall victim to the dreaded either/or
syndrome that currently involves the talented pair of outfield prospects,
Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown. The feeling is that Toronto will demand one of
the two young fly-chasers and that Amaro will feel pressured to relinquish one
or the other in order to salvage the deal.
Logic dictates the following question...why? Would the Phils have in the past
succumbed if a team had requested either Mike Schmidt or Greg Luzinski in trade
when both were navigating their way through the Philadelphia farm system? Had a
team demanded either Chase Utley or Ryan Howard as partial payment in return for
a prized recruit, would that have by necessity forced the Phils to say yes? Of
course, the answers to both questions would be no, and no.
It seems that Amaro must be consistently prudent once again when it comes to
both Taylor and Brown. While no minor leaguer is ever a complete "can't
miss" prospect, both Taylor and Brown qualify as as close to that ranking
as is humanly possible. By 2012 they should both be gracing the outfield grasses
of Citizens Bank Park and plan on staying there through most of the rest of the
decade. They seem that talented. Taylor is slowly but inexorably becoming a
household name within the ranks of the Phillie faithful, both for his incredible
exploits and because his name is constantly being mentioned whenever the Roy
Halladay trade discussions take place.
If you wish to make a comparison to the minor league exploits of Michael Taylor,
think Ryan Howard. Taylor is not merely working his way through the Phillie
system, he is bludgeoning his way through it. After stops in both Lakewood and
Clearwater last year produced such staggering numbers as a .346 batting average
with 19 home runs and 88 RBI in a mere 132 games, he has arguably improved those
numbers so far while playing for Reading in the more difficult Eastern League.
In 86 games played, Taylor fashioned a .333 batting average with 15 home runs
and 65 RBI. Add to these impressive numbers the slugging percentages of .557 and
.569 and it is little wonder that the anticipation of a Howard and Taylor
hitting back to back in Philadelphia has reached a crescendo peak. He has just
been promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley so he is merely a phone call away form
the major leagues.
Still, if Taylor is Fire, then Dominic Brown is surely Ice; the cool and smooth
contrast to the meteoric Taylor. Brown has alternately been compared to the
likes of Darryl Strawberry and David Justice, a rare five tool combination of
speed, power, athleticism and the ability to hit for average from the left side
of the plate. Baseball America, well respected for their scouting on
future talent, recently listed the 21 year old Brown as the seventeenth best
prospect in baseball. Not the Phillie system, mind you, but in the entire game.
Heady days indeed for this Phillie organization and yet another reason for
prudence rather than posturing when discussing the dispersal of any gems from
the farm system.
The same logic applies to the teams catcher of the future, Lou Marson, who is
currently plying his trade in Lehigh Valley also and should be in Philadelphia
by September. He is considered the teams catcher of the future and the reality
is that if he is moved to Toronto, the Phils will be painfully thin catching
prospects at the upper levels for the next three seasons. Many within the
organization believe that 19 year old Travis D'Arnaud has a higher upside than
does the switch-hitting Marson, but he is still at Single-A Lakewood and would
not be ready for major league delivery until sometime after 2012. Marson is the
heir apparent to incumbent Carlos Ruiz and has been no slouch at the plate this
year with a .300 average, albeit with little or no power.
Lou Marson is smooth behind the plate, calls a very good game, is familiar with
the likes of Kendrick, Carrasco, Carpenter and Happ and must not be moved, even
if it means walking away from a Roy Halladay deal. And speaking of Happ, he
would be the final piece of untouchable territory that Amaro should place on his
side when he draws an imaginary "line in the sand" when having trade
talks with Toronto. Dealing Happ as part of a Halladay deal would still leave
the Phils one starting pitcher short and could dangerously weaken their rotation
in the present.
At 7-0, Happ has provided a life boat for a Phillie team that has seen one
starter {Brett Myers] go down to injury, another starter [Chan Ho Park] fail
miserably in the rotation and two others [Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer] struggle
to recapture the magic that led to the championship chase in 2008. Only Joe
Blanton has shown some semblance of consistency and even he struggled until June
before righting his ship. Not so J.A. Happ, who has been a beacon of light since
becoming a regular member of the rotation in mid-May. He has displayed a sharp
curve ball, a decent fast ball and tremendous pitching moxie which reminds many
of young southpaws like Tom Glavine and Joe Saunders. He is a keeper and could
well form with Hamels a tremendous lefty duo for years to come.
If there is to be a proverbial "line in the sand", there it is...Happ,
Drabek, Brown, Taylor and Marson. Every other prospect within a very deep
Phillie system should then become fair game for the Blue Jay advances. They
indicate a need for a shortstop and as painful as it would be to see him head
north of the border, the Phils could relinquish infielder Jason Donald and will
undoubtedly have to. A .300 hitter last year in Double-A, Donald has struggled
with injuries this year but is still a highly rated young prospect. Another
lefty of some repute, Joe Savery, might interest the Jays if they feel they
cannot pry Happ loose from Amaro's grasp. Savery's record is 12-2 at Reading and
he is considered a very solid future starting pitcher in the major leagues.
Right-handers Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco are both considered top-notch
pitching prospects but could be sacrificed in any deal for Halladay. Carrasco
was considered the top prospect in the organization at seasons beginning and
Carpenter, who sports an outstanding 8-2 record at Lehigh, recently struck out
three hitters on only nine pitches in a minor league All-Star game and got the
victory for his efforts. Either one of Carpenter or Carrasco might well wet the
taste buds of a hungry Blue Jay appetite.
Finally, the Phillies have a plethora of talented young outfield prospects
within their system, players like Quintin Berry, Anthony Gose, Zack Collier or
Jiwan James. All come with extreme pluses and minuses but all appear more than
capable of someday making it big in the major leagues. In particular, Gose has
stolen a minor league best 50 bases this year while Collier is still considered
by most scouts as the best of the four players. Berry, on the other hand, was
the Phils minor league player of the year a few seasons back.
Philadelphia also has a plethora of minor league talent that might interest the
Blue Jays. Pitchers Antonio Bastardo, Johan Flande, Heitor Correa or Drew Naylor
might do the trick, as might infielders Freddy Galvis, Travis Mattair or Brad Harman. In fact, the Phillie system is awash with minor league talent and if the
Jays are diligent in their homework they may find a combination of players fit
for a Toronto feast. Just not named Happ, Drabek, Brown, Taylor or Marson.
William James once observed that "nothing is so fatiguing as the eternal
hanging on of an uncompleted task." For fledgling Phillie GM Ruben Amaro,
the task seems as complicated as it does uncompleted. He would like to add
another right-handed bat to his bench and add another arm to his occasionally
overworked bullpen. Jobs as yet unfinished but certainly work that should be
reasonably simple to complete. Not so the task of seeking one more arm for a
Phillie team that stands on the very precipice of baseball greatness.
That arm is currently available and to the untrained eye would seem an easy
enough bird to cage. Yet Amaro must be careful thus he celebrate too quickly his
desired...Christmas in July Halladay.
Columnist's Note: Please email all questions or comments to allenariza@earthlink.net
and I will respond. Thank you! CD from the Left Coast