Spring
Phenoms
Yeah,
you should take Spring Training stats with the proverbial grain of salt. Or, at
least if you remember Ron “Palm Trees” Stone you do. But, which of these two
spring outfield phenoms would you rather have, based on their spring numbers as
of St. Patrick’s Day?
|
|
AB
|
R |
H |
2 |
3 |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
AVG |
SLG |
|
A
|
24 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
.417 |
.750 |
|
B
|
22 |
8 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
9 |
3 |
.455 |
.773 |
Small
samples, but both pretty impressive, right? Facts not listed above… “A”
has three outfield assists, and zero at bats above Double-A. “B” is two
years younger than “A” and has exactly 11 at bats in Triple-A. Maybe that
tips the scales to “B,” but it’s hard to see either one going back to the
minors soon.
Well,
one of them just took a virtual trip to
Allentown
,
PA.
That’s because “A” is the Phillies Domonic Brown, and therein lies the
biggest difference, not necessarily between the two players (“B” is the
Braves Jason Heyward, BTW), but between their two teams. Both have been equally
good… though to hear the Braves media sycophants drool over Heyward, you’d
think he was at least the second coming of Hank Aaron… but Brown, barring
several catastrophic injuries, is going to spend 2010 in Double A or Triple A,
and Heyward is going to be the Braves right fielder, learning the game the hard
way on the major league level (can you say, “Jeff Francoeur,” class?)
So
what’s the difference? Simple, The Phillies don’t need Brown, and the Braves
have to bring Heyward up and hope he really is the number one prospect in
baseball to have any chance of generating enough offense to compete in 2010. And
that’s a big difference, Braves fans.
Smoltz
Farewell Tour Short-Circuited
Speaking
of virtual trips, John Smoltz announced his virtual retirement in conjunction
with St. Patrick’s Day… he’s joining TBS as a color man, thus proving
Abraham Lincoln’s saying that you can’t fool all of the people all of the
time. Smoltz certainly fooled the Red Sox and the Cardinals last year, fooled
them into thinking he could still pitch effectively. Of course, Smoltz has been
fooling people for years, notably baseball writers who keep insisting he’s a
lock for the Hall of Fame. Now, since these same fools will be doing the voting,
he very well may be a lock, but, just like Earl Coombs and Jesse Haines and
George Kelly, he is, in reality, a marginal candidate. Not that reality has much
to do with the Hall, otherwise Phil Rizzuto and Rabbit Maranville wouldn’t be
there, either.
No,
Smoltz’ “fame” has largely been based on two highly selective stats – he
is indeed the only pitcher with more than 200 wins and more than 150 saves. A
meaningless combination, at least as far as the Hall goes. For instance, Dennis
Eckersley, who is deservedly in the Hall, had 390 saves and 197 wins.
So,
Smoltz (or at least his stats) have been fooling people. And that’s not
uncommon in baseball, especially among elderly and formerly great pitchers, who
have a long and inglorious history of not hanging up their spikes until
they’re forced to do so, because they’ve run out of teams to fool. These
hurlers – Steve Carlton being probably the most notable case -- conduct their
own, unofficial farewell tours, looking for teams that will let them keep
pitching, despite the best judges – the hitters – ruling they should be in
retirement. Up until recently, it sure looked like Smoltz was going to continue
his farewell tour, actively seeking a sucker (and there’s one born every
minute, you know) to pick him up after the Red Sox and Cards decided not to
invest in a composite 3-8 record with a 6.35 ERA (which is what Smoltz posted
for those two teams in 2009.)
As
noted, Steve Carlton probably had the most painful of these exercises, going
from the Phillies to the Giants to the White Sox to the Indians to the Twins
from 1986 to 1988, and posting the following lines…
Year
W-L ERA
1986
9-14 5.10
1987
6-14 5.74
1988
0-1 16.76
Still,
Lefty was hardly the first (or last) great pitcher to suffer in this fashion.
Take Warren Spahn, who went from the Braves to the Mets to the Giants in 1964
and 1965, with records of 6-13 and 7-16 and ERAs of 5.29 and 4.01 (in a
pitcher’s era). And then there was Gaylord Perry, who like
Carlton
toured five cities (
Texas
,
New York
,
Atlanta
,
Seattle
and
Kansas City
) on the way out.
Year
W-L ERA
1980
10-13 3.68
1981
8-9 3.94
1982
10-12 4.40
1983
7-14 4.64
Back in the 30s, Burleigh Grimes, like
Carlton
, Spahn and Perry a Hall of Famer, didn’t get the message, either. He pitched
for the Cubs, Cards, Yankees and Pirates on the way out, fashioning this
record…
Year
W-L ERA
1932
6-11 4.78
1933
3-7 3.78
1934
4-5 6.11
Most
of the booming that Boomer Wells heard in his last two seasons with the Red Sox,
Padres and Dodgers was the sound of line drives. Here’s how he fared in 2006
and 2007…
Year
W-L ERA
2006
3-5 4.42
2007
9-9 5.43
Finally,
Luis Tiant did himself and his legacy no good after leaving the Red Sox.
Although he pitched effectively for the Yankees in 1979 (13-8, 3.91), he spent
the 1980, 1981 and 1982 seasons being used for BP while appearing on the rosters
of the aforesaid Hateds, the Pirates and the Angels.
Year
W-L ERA
1980
8-9 4.89
1981
2-5 3.92
1982
2-2 5.76
Now,
not all of these records would normally be automatic trips to the minors or the
Old Pitchers’ Home if your name was Joe Blow. But, they sure represented a
demeaning come down from the glory days of these individuals. Smoltz is making
the right move.
Stephen Strasburg
So
just how much might Stephen Strasburg accomplish in 2010, assuming the Nationals
do keep him in the majors for most of the year? There’s been all sorts of
speculation – he’s everything from another Tom Seaver to the best college
pitching prospect ever to comparisons to Mark Prior. One thing to keep in mind
is that, if he does pitch for the Nationals in 2010 (and it’s hard to believe,
given how awful the Nats’ pitching is, that he won’t) it will be for a team
that deservedly lost more than 100 games last year. Thus, his record isn’t
likely to be real good, no matter how good he may be individually.
The
corollary to this question is Strasburg’s age – he’s 21. And very few
starting pitchers are stars at such a young age. Nonetheless, it has been done.
If you go back through history to the start of the Expansion Era (1961), there
have been six Rookie of the Year pitchers who were age 21 or younger. They were,
in chronological order; Mark Fidrych (1976), Dave Righetti (1981), Fernando
Valenzuela (1981), Dwight Gooden (1984), Kerry Wood (1998), and Dontrelle Willis
(2003). Fidrych, Righetti, Wood and Willis were all 21 during their
ROY
seasons. Valenzuela claimed to be 20 (maybe yes, maybe no), and Gooden,
essentially the youngest true pitching star (if you discount Wally Bunker, which
almost everyone does) since Bob Feller, was 19. So, yes, a 21 year old (or
younger) pitcher can make a big splash.
(In
case you’re wondering, Mark Prior spent part of the 2002 season in the minors,
and only made 19 starts for the Cubs at age 21, going 6-6 with 3.32 ERA.)
W-L ERA
Fidrych
19-9 2.34
Righetti
8-4 2.05
Valenzuela
13-7 2.48
Gooden
17-9 2.60
Wood
13-6 3.40
Willis
14-6 3.30
There’s
another stat that might prove more significant in terms of speculation on
Strasburg’s 2010 season. And that’s each pitcher’s exposure to
professional baseball, prior to their
ROY
campaigns, their exposure via the minor leagues.
Fidrych
53 games
Righetti
80 games
Valenzuela
30 games
Gooden
38 games
Wood
55 games
Willis
69 games
Strasburg,
fresh out of college, has zero games experience in the minors, making a huge
2010 less likely.
There’s
also one final consideration -- the long term. None of the now-retired
ROY
pitchers listed above had careers that were near what their
ROY
stats would have indicated. Fidrych blew out his arm. Righetti had a good
career, but as a reliever. Valenzuela only won 20 games once, and finished with
173 Ws. Gooden, beset by substance abuse, was the best, finishing at 194-112
with exactly one, 20-win season. And that gloomy prediction is just as true for
Wood, Willis and Prior, none of whom is retired, but none of whom is a candidate
for the Cy Young Award anytime soon.
Don’t
start making plans for a parade down the Mall quite yet, Nats fans.